Aurora Viking’s Northern Lights Technology and Substorm Tracker

Aurora Viking is a family-owned Icelandic tour operator based in Reykjavík. We use onboard devices designed in house and running Aurora Viking’s own software to bring satellite cloud imagery and live solar-wind information into our buses. Guides use that information throughout the hunt, and guests can follow the changing conditions on the displays.

The purpose is practical: find a reachable opening in the clouds and aim to be there when the aurora becomes more active. Combining those two decisions can help improve the chance of a sighting, particularly on a difficult or changeable night.

Does Aurora Viking have a substorm tracker?

Yes. The Aurora Viking Substorm Tracker is an experimental feature built into the staff app on our minibus tablets and the client portal used by our guests. It is not a separate consumer product: it is part of the live decision-support system we use during Northern Lights tours.

Aurora Viking built its own Bz/BzH model, the algorithm based on it, the wider substorm-phase calculations, the interface and the guide-facing workflow. The system pulls multiple live inputs from spacecraft and magnetometer networks and combines them to estimate which phase of a substorm may be developing. The raw instrument measurements come from external sources: solar-wind values originate in spacecraft observations, while the regional ground response currently comes from Finnish Meteorological Institute magnetometers in northern Finland and Scandinavia. Aurora Viking’s proprietary work is the model and algorithm that interpret and combine those inputs.

The Aurora Viking Bz/BzH model and substorm algorithm combine these signals rather than treating one raw number as the answer. Inputs include Bz, solar-wind speed and density, estimated coupling and pressure, plus changes in the regional westward auroral current. From their development and timing, the tracker estimates whether conditions look quiet, whether the magnetotail may be loading, whether an expansion window may be developing, or whether the system appears to be recovering. The guide sees both the incoming solar-wind conditions and the magnetic response already measured on the ground.

Does negative Bz trigger a substorm?

Not by itself. A sustained southward Bz can help Earth’s magnetic field couple with the solar wind and can contribute to energy being stored in the magnetotail. But there is no single Bz value that precisely greenlights a substorm or guarantees when the Northern Lights will intensify.

Substorm development depends on the wider solar-wind conditions, how long favourable coupling persists, pressure changes, energy already stored in the magnetosphere and the response detected by ground magnetometers. That is why the Aurora Viking Substorm Tracker uses a multi-source phase estimate and timing window instead of presenting Bz as an exact countdown.

A quiet regional reading does not prove that no aurora is visible above Iceland, and none of these measurements indicate whether the local sky is clear. Our guides combine the tracker with satellite cloud imagery, weather models, road and safety information, direct observations and experience.

Technology developed for our own Northern Lights tours

We developed our devices and software around the decisions our guides make in the field. The system brings information from external satellite and space-weather data sources into the bus, where it can be interpreted alongside local observations and guiding experience.

Aurora Viking’s contribution is the onboard system and how we use it during the hunt. It keeps current information available as the evening develops, helping guides reassess where to go, when to wait and when a change of plan is worthwhile.

Finding clear skies when the forecast is wrong

Cloud forecasts are useful for planning, but the location and timing of a clearing can differ from the prediction. A promising area may stay cloudy, while an opening develops somewhere the forecast did not suggest.

We continue checking recent satellite images during the tour. If the images show the skies clearing in another area, we can assess whether that opening is reachable and adjust the route. We compare the observations with the forecasts and what our guides can see outside.

In our guiding experience, there have been evenings when this approach helped us reach clear skies and see the Northern Lights while some tours following the earlier forecast remained under cloud. This is one of the practical reasons we invest in our own system: a forecast that turns out to be wrong does not have to determine the rest of the evening.

For a closer look at interpreting the maps, read our guide to Iceland’s cloud forecast.

Timing a clear sky with an auroral expansion

Finding a gap in the clouds is only part of the chase. We also watch live solar-wind trends to assess when conditions may become more favourable for the aurora to strengthen and spread across the sky.

Our aim is to time our arrival at a clear opening with that increase in activity. Where the clouds are clearing and when the aurora might expand are considered together, rather than treating the weather and the space-weather information as separate decisions.

Upstream solar-wind measurements can provide advance information about changes approaching Earth. They cannot give an exact appointment for a local auroral display, so we keep watching how the situation develops. The data informs our timing; the sky still has the final say.

How live data can improve sighting chances

The advantage comes from being able to respond. Recent observations can reveal a usable opening that an earlier forecast missed, and solar-wind information can help a guide judge when it may be worth being in position.

On some nights, that combination can make the difference between remaining under cloud and reaching a view of the Northern Lights. On other nights, conditions leave no realistic opportunity. We use the technology to improve the decisions within our control, supported by the experience of the guide.

These are observations from our work in the field, rather than a measured comparison of success rates across operators. No technology can guarantee a sighting on every departure.

Storm chasing for clear skies

Some of our guests describe the experience as storm chasing for clear skies. The monitors inside the buses let you follow what we are watching and understand why the guide makes a particular decision. You can see the changing conditions, hear why we are heading towards a clearing and follow the developing chase.

You do not need to know how to read a space-weather chart before joining us. The guide can explain what matters that evening, turning the journey into a chance to understand the hunt as it happens.

A Toronto Guardian account of an Aurora Viking tour described the live-data monitor inside the van and the guide’s decisions during the chase.

Local experience and current information

The data is useful only when the next move is practical. Guides consider travel time, road and weather conditions, suitable stopping places and what they can observe locally. Live feeds also have update intervals and transmission delays, so timestamps matter.

We built our onboard system to support that judgment and give guests a clearer view of the work behind a Northern Lights hunt.

Explore Aurora Viking’s Northern Lights tour from Reykjavík, or see our Northern Lights forecast for Iceland.

Further reading

NOAA’s explanation of real-time solar-wind data provides scientific background on upstream spacecraft observations. Our tour review comparison provides a separate look at guest feedback.